Nifty 50 Index Journey From 9000 To 11000

Let’s study the journey of NIFTY from 9000 to 11,000 in the last 2 years, and the performance of the stocks in NIFTY50. Also, let’s analyze which stocks have gone up and how the P/E ratios of those companies have expanded, from the period of March 2017 to March 2019. The result of NIFTY 50 Stocks Analysis will clarify that how the market is rewarding the companies who are delivering better earning, and this reward is even more than the earning capacities of these companies.

NIFTY 50 Stocks Analysis

Now let’s start the analysis: Here, we have taken the share price of the 50 companies in NIFTY in March 2017 and their share prices on 7th March 2019. The % change tells us the returns given by that stock in the last 2 years. And you can also find the P/E ratios of these companies in March 2017 and their latest P/E ratios. The stocks have been arranged in the descending order with first being the one which has given the highest returns in the last 2 years and the last with least returns.

Analysis – Explanation

Top 10 Stocks by % appreciation in share price

Analysis of NIFTY 50 top 10 Stocks
Analysis of NIFTY 50 Stocks
First 5 stocks Analysis in top 10 stocks NIfty 50
  • Bajaj Finance has given a return of 155.14% in the period of last 2 years. Its PE has also expanded heavily. So, why has this happened? If the PE ratio of Baja Finance was 34.96 in March 2017, the from PEG ratio perspective, the market was expecting an earning growth of around 35%-40% from it. And exactly the same thing has happened. If remove the PE expansion from the price rise, then what we get is the earnings growth, which is 80%. This means that the PE of 34.96 was justified. But the earnings of Bajaj Finance have grown by more than 35% and that is why the market has expanded its PE so much.
  • The price rise in Titan has been of 136.96% and the PE expansion has also been heavy. Here, if we remove the PE expansion from the % change, what we get is a 118% of earning growth. Titan has justified the PE of 57.56 and that is why now it has been given a PE of 68.56.
  • For HUL, if we do the same thing we get an earnings growth of 36% in 2 years which is very good for a FMCG company. The way market has rewarded HUL, it looks kind off and overvalued stock toady. But the business model of the company is also very strong.
  • Reliance Industries has had a profit growth of close to 35%-36% in the last 2 years, which is still justifiable as the PE has not been expanded to the level of 40 or 50. Thus, Reliance Industries still looks very attractive. Reliance Retail and Reliance Jio are also expanding their reach every month.
  • Bajaj Finserv holds almost 58% in Bajaj Finance. Bajaj Finance is revenue generating business of Bajaj Finserv. So, the major earning of Bajaj Finserv is from Bajaj Finance.
next 5 STOCKS ANALYSIS IN TOP 10 stocks NIFTY 50 STOCKS
  • A profit growth of 36%-38% in the last 2 years justifies the current PE of 18.44 for Tech Mahindra.
  • JSW Steel has had a turnaround story as the steel industry has gone through a negative cycle. The PE ratio has been deserved and as it is steel companies don’t get high PE ratios. The steel companies in India has profited from the import duty levied by the government recently.
  • The profit growth of TCS is not much and thus the PE expansion doesn’t look justified. TCS is big company with a strong a group behind to back, which is why it has got such premium valuation. In the IT industry, compared to TCS, Tech Mahindra and HCL Technologies look more attractive. But TCS will always enjoy such valuations as there are problems in the business operations or model.
  • HDFC Banktoo, looks a little overvalued the way its PE has expanded. But a profit growth of 18%-20% is normal for HDFC bank which is the stock has grown in this period.
  • Kotak Mahindra Bank has the same stock as that of HDFC bank. The price rise os of 50% but the PE has expanded by hardly 4.74% which means that Kotak Mahindra bank has justified its price rise with its profit growth.

Next 10 sTocks by share price % apprECiation

Analysis of NIFTY 50 next 10 Stocks
Analysis of NIFTY 50 Stocks
  • The PE expansion of Wipro is huge with profit growth of 13%-14%.
  • The last 8 quarters have been quite dynamic for ICICI bank in which a lot of actions were taken. ICICI bank has come recovered from losses and earned profits which are why here the PE expansion shouldn’t be looked at.
  • Infosys has the same scenario as that of TCS.
  • Axis bank PE expansion looks huge as it still reports losses in some quarters and thus, Axis bank should be excluded from this analysis.
  • The PE of HDFC Ltd has decreased with a rise in its price. HDFC Ltd looks like an undervalued stock at this point. HDFC Ltd has a stake in HDFC bank, HDFC AMC, and HDFC Standard Life.
  • Larsen & Toubro is another company where the PE has decreased but its price has risen. L&T looks very attractive from the valuations perspective.
  • UPL has experienced a rally in its price because of the PE expansion.
  • The PE ratio of HCL Technologies is almost same. Thus, the price rise has happened owing completely to the net profits.
  • The auto industry is going through a negative downturn which may continue for the next 4-6 months. That’s why these numbers of Maruti Suzuki India.

Last 11 Stocks with positive % share price appreciation

Analysis of NIFTY 50 last 11 Stocks with positive % appreciation in share price
Analysis of NIFTY 50 Stocks
  • A decreased PE indicates that GAIL India has a god earnings growth of almost 30% in the last 2 years which is good.
  • IndusInd Bank has had a net profit growth of around 27% in the last 2 years. But there were some corporate governance issues and there also some allocations in IL&FS of IndusInd bank because of which its stock hasn’t seen a rise much and also seen some corrections.
  • Tata Steel has another loss to profit kind off story. Thus, we should look much towards its PE expansion and the stock doesn’t fit in, in this analysis. Steel industry is a cyclical industry and is going through some changes. So, for a longer horizon it s a good stock but a cyclical one.
  • Adani Ports has a profit growth of hardly 4%-5%.
  • The PE of ITC has contracted meaning the company has profit growth of around 14% in the last 2 years which is why the sluggishness in this stock can be observed..
  • Hindalco Industries and UltraTech Cement are other cyclical stories.
  • SBI has a profit to loss kind off situation. In the coming 3-4 quarters this situation may turn around.
  • Bajaj Auto has also experienced PR contraction.
  • Mahindra & Mahindra has a huge decrease in their PE. The price rise is flat but the company has had profits. And if the price is almost stagnant indicated that the EPS of the company has increased.

NIFTY 50 stocks with Depreciation in share price form mar-17 to mar-19

Analysis of NIFTY 50 Stocks
Analysis of NIFTY 50 Stocks
Analysis of NIFTY 50 Stocks
Analysis of NIFTY 50 Stocks
  • Bharti Infratel hasn’t had any movements. Both price and PE are almost same levels.
  • Pharma industry has been negative in the last 2 years. There is an overall negative market in the pharma industry. The PE has decreased and also price which means that the earnings have improved but the overall negative industry has had effect.
  • From Dr. Reddy’s onwards all the stocks have a PE contraction story.
  • Whenever elections arrive, oil industry is affected negatively. BPCL, HPCL, ONGC and IOCL all have the same story.

summary

  1. Most of the companies here can be kept in the radar for investments by the investors as they have a strong visibility for the next 50 years and also don’t have any replacements as of yet in the market.
  2. Investments should be done when the stocks get corrected, go through negative cycles or when they deliver disappointing quarters.
  3. Investors should always build their portfolio in staggered manner and not make lump sum investment in any stock at any point of time.

notes :

  • The numbers that are used are approximate and have been rounded for presentation purposes.
  • We are not in any way saying that these are bad companies, or the stocks of these companies are bad.
  • We are also not suggesting anyone to immediately go and buy these stocks or invest in the stock markets.
  • Only an analysis has been presented here. No judgments or final statements are being made here.

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